ADO Den Haag vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
Match Preview
The model favours ADO Den Haag to win against Groningen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. ADO Den Haag enters the new season in 16th place, having finished their previous campaign on a strong note with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This recent form suggests they have momentum and confidence as they look to start the season positively. On the other hand, Groningen finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 18th place. Their recent form shows some struggles, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistent performance could hinder their ability to compete effectively as they begin the new season. According to the model, ADO Den Haag has a win probability of 55%, while the projected score is 2-1. A key market to watch is the odds for ADO Den Haag to win. However, one caveat is that both teams are starting the season without any competitive match experience, meaning unpredictability could affect the outcome. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
ADO Den Haag have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. ADO Den Haag are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.64 | 3.70 | 2.36 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.68 | 3.45 | 2.44 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.52 | 2.33 | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.45 | 2.40 | |
| 2.77 | 3.64 | 2.51 | 1.70 | 2.24 | — | — | |
| 2.59 | 3.26 | 2.29 | 1.66 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.38 | |
| 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.76 | 3.55 | 2.51 | 1.70 | 2.21 | 1.52 | 2.37 | |
| 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.70 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 2.33 | |
| 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.38 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.47 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.50 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Groningen leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between ADO Den Haag and Groningen, Groningen has won 5 times, ADO Den Haag has won 2 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Groningen to secure narrow victories, with four matches decided by a single goal. However, they also recorded a few more decisive wins, including a 3-0 victory. ADO Den Haag's last victory over Groningen was in September 2023, suggesting a competitive dynamic, but Groningen has had the upper hand overall in recent encounters.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 10 | Groningen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | DLLWW |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonADO Den Haag have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to ADO Den Haag 1-4 and drew with ADO Den Haag 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 3L from the last 14 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Groningen have won 4 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 5-1 and beat ADO Den Haag 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 14L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersADO Den Haag3
Groningen7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Manschot has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
ADO Den Haag have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Groningen 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ADO Den Haag have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ADO Den Haag player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
