ADO Den Haag vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen
Match Preview
The model favours ADO Den Haag to win against Groningen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. ADO Den Haag enters the new season in 16th place, having finished their previous campaign on a strong note with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This recent form suggests they have momentum and confidence as they look to start the season positively. On the other hand, Groningen finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 18th place. Their recent form shows some struggles, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistent performance could hinder their ability to compete effectively as they begin the new season. According to the model, ADO Den Haag has a win probability of 55%, while the projected score is 2-1. A key market to watch is the odds for ADO Den Haag to win. However, one caveat is that both teams are starting the season without any competitive match experience, meaning unpredictability could affect the outcome. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
ADO Den Haag have been the stronger side, winning 75% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. ADO Den Haag are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.64 | 3.70 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 2.73 | 3.68 | 2.30 | 1.58 | 2.33 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 2.81 | 3.79 | 2.37 | 1.61 | 2.38 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 2.77 | 3.70 | 2.37 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Groningen leads 5-2)Groningen hold the edge in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 meetings with 2 draws and 2 ADO Den Haag wins. The record points to a tie Groningen have controlled for years, though the draws show ADO Den Haag have at times kept it tight.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonADO Den Haag have won 4 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with ADO Den Haag 0-0 and beat ADO Den Haag 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 1D 2L from the last 12 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Groningen have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Heracles 2-1 and lost to Ajax 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 12L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersADO Den Haag
No reported absences
Groningen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ADO Den Haag average 2.6 goals per match at home; Groningen 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
ADO Den Haag have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 75% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. ADO Den Haag player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
