Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against Utrecht, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. AZ Alkmaar enters the new season with a stronger recent form, having secured three wins in their last five matches. This positive momentum could provide them with the confidence needed to kick off the season successfully. Utrecht, on the other hand, has struggled recently, with only one win in their last five matches, alongside three losses. This lack of consistent performance may hinder their ability to start the season on a high note. Additionally, their position at the bottom of the standings could add pressure as they look to turn their fortunes around. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for AZ Alkmaar, with a key market percentage suggesting a strong backing for their victory. However, a caveat exists; if Utrecht can harness home advantage and improve their form, they may pose a significant challenge. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.36 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 2.66 | 3.58 | 2.40 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.45 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.74 | 3.71 | 2.51 | 1.68 | 2.29 | — | — | |
| 2.63 | 3.44 | 2.38 | 1.66 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.73 | 3.68 | 2.48 | 1.66 | 2.27 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 2.70 | 3.65 | 2.32 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
| 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.47 | 1.65 | 2.32 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.40 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Utrecht leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar shows Utrecht winning 3 matches, AZ Alkmaar winning 2, and 5 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. This indicates a relatively balanced competition, with a notable frequency of draws, suggesting that matches are often closely contested. The scorelines reveal a mix of results, including several high-scoring draws such as 5-5 and 3-3, indicating that both teams can generate offensive threats. AZ Alkmaar's last win against Utrecht occurred in October 2022, while Utrecht has not lost to them in their last four meetings, further highlighting the competitive nature of these fixtures.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 15 | Utrecht | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUtrecht have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 1-6 and lost to AZ Alkmaar 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 12L from the last 28 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 2-3 and beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 7L from the last 34 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUtrecht3-4-2-1Confirmed
AZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersUtrecht6
AZ Alkmaar6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Makkelie has averaged 6.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Utrecht have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 6.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
