Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Tips & Odds
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven
Match Preview
The model favours PSV Eindhoven to win against Excelsior, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. PSV starts the season in a strong position, having finished fifth last season. Their recent form is impressive, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a solid foundation as they aim to build momentum early in the new campaign. Excelsior, on the other hand, is looking to turn things around after a challenging previous season, where they finished in the lower half of the table. Although they have won their last five matches in pre-season, it remains to be seen how that form translates to the competitive atmosphere of the Eredivisie. The lack of recent competitive fixtures may pose a challenge for them as they seek to improve their standing. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for PSV Eindhoven, highlighting their advantage going into this match. A key market percentage indicates that PSV is expected to score at least two goals. However, one caveat to consider is that if Excelsior manages to capitalize on early nerves from PSV, they could disrupt the expected outcome. For a detailed explanation of our methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.55 | 4.65 | 1.57 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 6.25 | 4.55 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.44 | 2.55 | |
| 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 3.25 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 6.47 | 4.83 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 3.33 | — | — | |
| 5.51 | 4.76 | 1.44 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 6.25 | 4.75 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 6.43 | 4.68 | 1.49 | 1.30 | 2.99 | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 6.25 | 4.60 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 3.40 | 1.41 | 2.70 | |
| 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 5.80 | 5.00 | 1.53 | 1.38 | 3.05 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 5.75 | 5.00 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 3.20 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 10-0)In the last 10 matches between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven, PSV has won all 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by PSV, with several heavy victories, including a 6-0 and a 5-1 win. Excelsior has struggled to keep matches competitive, as evidenced by the fact that they have not managed to secure a draw or win in this series. The closest match was a 5-4 defeat in the KNVB Beker, but overall, the results reflect a significant gap in competitiveness, with Excelsior last winning against PSV over five years ago.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 | Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonExcelsior have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Excelsior 2-1 and lost to Excelsior 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 8L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
PSV Eindhoven have won 7 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat PSV Eindhoven 1-3 and beat Utrecht 1-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 3D 7L from the last 28 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedExcelsior4-3-3Confirmed
PSV Eindhoven4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
3 playersExcelsior1
PSV Eindhoven2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Nagtegaal has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Excelsior have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; PSV Eindhoven 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.56 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 64% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
