Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Tips & Odds
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen
Match Preview
The model favours Willem II to win against NEC Nijmegen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Willem II enters the new season with optimism, having finished their previous campaign with a strong form of three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests a team that has found some rhythm and could carry that momentum into the opening fixture. On the other hand, NEC Nijmegen's recent form has been less encouraging, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to start the season on a strong note, as they look to build confidence after a challenging end to the previous season. Their position in the standings may not reflect any immediate pressure, but they will need to find a way to stabilize their form quickly. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Willem II, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of Willem II scoring at least two goals, which seems plausible given their recent form. However, a caveat exists: if NEC Nijmegen can capitalize on any early-season jitters from Willem II, the match could swing in their favour. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.75 | 4.35 | 1.59 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.48 | 2.45 | |
| 4.45 | 4.20 | 1.64 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.62 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 4.64 | 4.38 | 1.68 | 1.49 | 2.69 | — | — | |
| 4.39 | 4.11 | 1.62 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.65 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 4.33 | 4.50 | 1.67 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.58 | 4.32 | 1.69 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.60 | 1.42 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.65 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 4.65 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 4.40 | 4.20 | 1.65 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen, the record stands at 1 win for Willem II, 4 draws, and 5 wins for NEC Nijmegen. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by the four draws and a mix of narrow and heavy scorelines. Notably, Willem II's sole victory came with a significant 4-1 scoreline, while NEC Nijmegen's victories have generally been tighter, with three matches decided by a single goal. The last time Willem II won against NEC Nijmegen was in December 2024, highlighting a recent trend favoring the latter.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 9 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | DLWWL |
| 16 | Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWillem II have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 0-3 and drew with Heerenveen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 6L from the last 24 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
NEC Nijmegen have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 and lost to Bodo/Glimt 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 11L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWillem II4-2-3-1Confirmed
NEC Nijmegen3-1-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersWillem II6
NEC Nijmegen5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Gozubuyuk has averaged 1.7 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Willem II have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; NEC Nijmegen 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
