Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur
Match Preview
The model favours Fortuna Sittard to win against Cambuur, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fortuna Sittard enters the new season with strong momentum, having concluded the last campaign with three wins in their last five matches. This form suggests a positive trajectory, and their position as runners-up last season indicates a competitive edge going into the current match. On the other hand, Cambuur's recent form has been less impressive, with only two wins in their last five matches. While they topped the league at the end of the previous season, the inconsistency reflected in their recent results could hinder their performance against a strong opponent like Fortuna Sittard. The model output suggests a win probability of around 58% for Fortuna Sittard, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market insight is the likelihood of both teams scoring, which could be around 65%. However, a potential caveat is that if Cambuur can leverage their previous season's success, they may pose a greater challenge than expected. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Fortuna Sittard have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Fortuna Sittard win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Fortuna Sittard are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 1.63 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.67 | 4.41 | 4.71 | 1.51 | 2.64 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.98 | 4.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.33 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.68 | 4.37 | 4.62 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
| 1.64 | 4.20 | 4.40 | 1.47 | 2.65 | 1.48 | 2.48 | |
| 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.15 | 4.75 | 1.53 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Fortuna Sittard leads 5-3)In the last nine matches between Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur, Fortuna Sittard has won 5 times, Cambuur has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including four fixtures decided by a single goal. Cambuur achieved a notable 4-1 victory in August 2022, suggesting they can secure heavy wins, while Fortuna Sittard has also demonstrated their strength with a 3-0 win in 2016. The most recent match saw Fortuna Sittard winning 2-1 in January 2023, marking a slight edge for them in this head-to-head record.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 | Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFortuna Sittard have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fortuna Sittard 0-2 and beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 12L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cambuur have won 1 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Fortuna Sittard 3-1 and lost to Bologna 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 2D 9L from the last 15 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFortuna Sittard4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cambuur4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersFortuna Sittard2
Cambuur2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. van den Kerkhof has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fortuna Sittard have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Cambuur 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fortuna Sittard have generated 1.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fortuna Sittard player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
