Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah to win, with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Al-Fateh. Al-Ahli Jeddah currently sits in sixth place in the league, having accumulated 12 points from their seven matches. Their scoring ability has been notable, with 16 goals scored, averaging over two goals per match. Despite some inconsistency, they have shown resilience, especially in their recent matches, winning two of their last five. On the other hand, Al-Fateh is struggling at the bottom of the table in 15th position, with only three points from seven games. They have yet to secure a win this season, reflecting a challenging campaign that has seen them score just four goals while conceding 11. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with only three draws and four losses in their last five matches, indicating difficulties in both attack and defence. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and suggests they are likely to secure the three points in this fixture. However, a potential caveat for Al-Ahli could be a lack of consistency, as any slip in form could open the door for a surprise result. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Al-Ahli Jeddah are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.70 | 4.80 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.49 | 2.38 | |
| 5.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 5.98 | 5.21 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 3.11 | — | — | |
| 5.32 | 4.51 | 1.39 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 6.19 | 5.21 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.49 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 6.20 | 4.80 | 1.47 | 1.40 | 2.95 | 1.52 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.75 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Fateh leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah, Al-Fateh has won 5 times, Al-Ahli Jeddah has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with a mix of close contests and a few decisive victories; notably, Al-Fateh recorded a significant 5-1 win in their most recent meeting. While both teams have had their share of victories, Al-Fateh's recent performances suggest a slight upper hand, particularly with their ability to secure high-scoring wins. Al-Ahli Jeddah last won against Al-Fateh in February 2022, indicating a potential shift in dominance.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 17 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | LLLDD |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Fateh have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al-Fateh 0-0 and lost to Al-Fateh 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 10D 14L from the last 27 games (11% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 7 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-1 and lost to Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 6D 9L from the last 36 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Fateh
No reported absences
Al-Ahli Jeddah
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Abdulhadi Al-Fahad has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Abdulhadi Al-Fahad to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Al-Fateh have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Ahli Jeddah have generated 1.61 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Ahli Jeddah player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
