Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah
Match Preview
The model favours Al Diriyah to win against Al-Fateh, with a projected scoreline of 2-0. Al Diriyah currently sits in 9th place in the league, having secured 4 points from their opening three matches. They have shown a mixed form with one win, one draw, and one loss, but their recent performance indicates a slight upward trend, particularly with two wins in their last five matches. In contrast, Al-Fateh is struggling at 15th in the standings, having yet to secure a win this season. Their record of 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses reflects a challenging start, and they have only managed to score once while conceding five goals. Their recent form has been particularly troubling, with four consecutive losses, highlighting difficulties in both attack and defense. The model output suggests a win probability of approximately 65% for Al Diriyah, with a key market indicator reflecting their status as the likely favourite. However, one caveat to consider is that Al-Fateh could benefit from home advantage and find form when it matters most. For a deeper understanding of how these predictions are formulated, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Al Diriyah have been the stronger side, winning 56% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Al Diriyah are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Fateh vs Al Diriyah| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.70 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.35 | |
| 3.66 | 3.68 | 1.77 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.28 | |
| 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 3.88 | 3.98 | 1.84 | 1.60 | 2.36 | — | — | |
| 3.33 | 3.46 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.83 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.80 | 3.82 | 1.84 | 1.59 | 2.28 | 1.53 | 2.32 | |
| 3.65 | 3.65 | 1.79 | 1.60 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.32 | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 3.75 | 3.85 | 1.91 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.92 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 1.53 | 2.42 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 10 | Al Diriyah | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Fateh have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al-Fateh 0-0 and lost to Al-Fateh 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 10D 13L from the last 26 games (12% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al Diriyah have won 4 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al-Ettifaq 0-3 and beat Al-Hazm 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 5L from the last 16 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Fateh
No reported absences
Al Diriyah
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Fateh have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Al Diriyah 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al Diriyah have generated 1.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 56% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al Diriyah player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
