Al Kholood vs Al Shabab Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab
Match Preview
The model favours Al Kholood to win against Al Shabab, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al Kholood currently occupies 8th place in the league standings, having gone unbeaten in their first three matches this season, with one win and two draws. Their goal difference of +1 indicates a balanced attack and defence, having scored five goals while conceding four. This solid start reflects their ability to compete effectively in the league. On the other hand, Al Shabab is struggling in 13th place, with no victories in their opening three matches, recording two draws and one loss. Their goal difference of -2 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, as they have conceded six goals while scoring only four. This lack of winning form could impact their confidence as they face a team that has shown resilience. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Al Kholood, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Al Kholood is favoured by a significant margin in the betting odds. However, the caveat is that if Al Shabab can tighten their defence and convert their chances, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Al Kholood have been the stronger side, winning 23% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Al Kholood are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al Kholood vs Al Shabab| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.25 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
| 2.68 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.72 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.19 | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.80 | 3.59 | 2.42 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 2.63 | 3.18 | 2.30 | 1.77 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.78 | 3.42 | 2.39 | 1.74 | 2.02 | 1.57 | 2.23 | |
| 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 1.96 | 1.62 | 2.12 | |
| 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.25 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.27 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.30 | 1.70 | 1.99 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Al Shabab leads 3-2)Al Shabab hold the edge in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings with 0 draws and 2 Al Kholood wins. The record points to a tie Al Shabab have controlled for years, though the draws show Al Kholood have at times kept it tight.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 |  Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 8 | Al Kholood | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | LDDDL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl Kholood have won 2 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al Kholood 3-2 and drew with Al Kholood 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 10L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al Shabab have won 1 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Al-Hazm 1-1 and drew with Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 11L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Kholood
No reported absences
Al Shabab
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al Kholood have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Al Shabab 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al Kholood have generated 1.19 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 23% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al Kholood player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
