Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Fayha to win against Al Riyadh, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Fayha currently sits in 12th place in the league, having played 7 matches with a record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Their goal-scoring has been modest, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Despite their low position, they have shown some resilience, managing to secure a draw in their last two matches and demonstrating the ability to compete. Al Riyadh, positioned just above Al-Fayha in 11th place, has had a slightly better start to the season with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. They have scored 8 goals but have struggled defensively, conceding 16 goals, leading to a goal difference of -8. Their recent form shows they are capable of getting results, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, but they will need to improve defensively if they are to challenge for points in this matchup. The model gives Al-Fayha a win probability of approximately 45%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a key caveat is that if Al Riyadh can capitalize on Al-Fayha's defensive vulnerabilities, they could easily upset the prediction. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to provide these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Al-Fayha have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Al-Fayha clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Al-Fayha are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.03 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 2.19 | 3.24 | 3.52 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 2.01 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.91 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.12 | 3.34 | 3.34 | 1.93 | 1.82 | 1.73 | 1.98 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 1.92 | 1.76 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Al-Fayha leads 4-0)In the last seven matches between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh, Al-Fayha has won four times, while there have been three draws and Al Riyadh has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Al-Fayha to dominate, with three matches ending in a win by two goals or more, including a recent 4-2 victory. The draw frequency suggests competitive encounters, but Al Riyadh has not won any of these fixtures, highlighting their struggle against Al-Fayha. Overall, Al-Fayha has maintained a strong upper hand in this matchup.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 19 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 19 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 19 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 17 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  NEOM | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 16 | DWWWL |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 15 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 | DWDLW |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 7 | DDLDW |
| 16 |  Al Taawon | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 | LLDLD |
| 17 |  Al-Fateh | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | LLLDD |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Fayha have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al Riyadh 1-1 and drew with Al Kholood 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 14L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al Riyadh have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Al Khaleej Saihat 0-0 and lost to Al-Ahli Jeddah 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 11L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAl-Fayha4-3-3Confirmed
Al Riyadh4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Fayha
No reported absences
Al Riyadh
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Fayha have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Al Riyadh 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Fayha have generated 0.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Fayha player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
