Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
Match Preview
The model favours Alanyaspor to win against Erzurumspor FK, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Alanyaspor is currently positioned 5th in the league, having accumulated 11 points from 6 matches with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Their goal difference of +2 reflects a solid start to the season, particularly with a recent form of three wins and a draw in their last five matches. On the other hand, Erzurumspor FK sits in 14th place, having earned 7 points from 6 games, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their goal-scoring has been a challenge, as they have only netted 3 goals while conceding 11, leading to a goal difference of -8. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with just 2 wins in their last five matches, which could hinder their chances against a stronger opponent. The model indicates a win probability of around 60% for Alanyaspor, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if Erzurumspor can tighten their defense and find a way to convert their limited chances into goals, they could surprise the home side. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of matches. Erzurumspor FK average 1.2 goals per game.
Alanyaspor manage games at home, conceding just 1.45 goals per match. Erzurumspor FK score 1.18 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Alanyaspor have been the stronger side, winning 24% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Alanyaspor win as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Alanyaspor clean sheets, in line with their 24% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Alanyaspor are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.34 | 4.00 | 2.27 | 1.59 | 2.01 | 1.70 | |
| 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.20 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 2.00 | 3.24 | 4.44 | 2.36 | 1.59 | — | — | |
| 1.94 | 3.05 | 3.74 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.90 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.80 | 2.35 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.98 | 3.48 | 4.17 | 2.36 | 1.65 | 2.01 | 1.72 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.15 | 4.15 | 2.32 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.25 | 4.00 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK stands at 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 2 wins for Erzurumspor FK, and 1 draw over the last 5 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal success. The matches have featured a mix of scorelines, including a narrow 2-1 win for Alanyaspor and a heavy 4-1 victory, suggesting that while some games have been closely contested, others have been more one-sided. The draw occurred in their most recent meeting, highlighting the competitive nature of their encounters.
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Amed | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 17 | WDWWD |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 | WWLWW |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 12 | LDWDW |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 11 | WDWLW |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | LDDWL |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 3 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlanyaspor have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Alanyaspor 0-0 and drew with Alanyaspor 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 11D 11L from the last 29 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Erzurumspor FK have won 2 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Alanyaspor 0-0 and lost to Beşiktaş 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 3L from the last 17 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAlanyaspor3-4-3Confirmed
Erzurumspor FK4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
1 playerAlanyaspor1
Erzurumspor FK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Celik has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Celik to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Alanyaspor have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; Erzurumspor FK 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alanyaspor have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 24% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alanyaspor player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
