Casa Pia vs Santa Clara Prediction, Tips & Odds
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara
Match Preview
The model favours Santa Clara to win this match against Casa Pia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently sitting in fourth place in the Primeira Liga, Santa Clara has enjoyed a strong start to the season, remaining unbeaten with four wins and three draws in their first seven matches. Their solid defensive record, conceding only four goals, highlights their effectiveness, while they have scored 11, giving them a positive goal difference of seven. In contrast, Casa Pia is struggling at the bottom of the table in 17th position, having managed only one win from seven games. With a disappointing goal tally of just three goals scored, and a concerning 16 goals conceded, they have a goal difference of -13. Their recent form, which includes only one win alongside three losses, suggests ongoing difficulties in both attack and defense. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 70% for Santa Clara, reflecting their superior form and standings. Casa Pia’s potential for an upset could hinge on their ability to improve their offensive output, but their current trajectory raises concerns. The full methodology behind this prediction, utilizing expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, prepared by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 26% of matches. Santa Clara average 1.5 goals per game.
Casa Pia manage games at home, conceding just 1.68 goals per match. Santa Clara score 1.47 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.7% probability.
Santa Clara have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Santa Clara are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.64 | 3.30 | 2.01 | 2.19 | 1.63 | 1.93 | 1.76 | |
| 3.80 | 3.10 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 3.86 | 3.26 | 2.14 | 2.30 | 1.67 | — | — | |
| 3.35 | 3.06 | 2.06 | 2.20 | 1.67 | — | — | |
| 3.60 | 3.20 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.80 | 3.44 | 2.10 | 2.27 | 1.69 | 1.93 | 1.78 | |
Betano | 3.80 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 1.90 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.13 | 2.00 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Santa Clara leads 3-2)In their last seven encounters, Casa Pia has won 2 matches, drawn 2, and Santa Clara has emerged victorious in 3. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight matches, including three that ended in draws and four decided by a single goal. Notably, both teams have shown the ability to win, but Santa Clara has been slightly more successful recently, with their last victory occurring in December 2025. The overall balance of results suggests a closely matched contest rather than a one-sided affair.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 14 | WWDLL |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCasa Pia have won 3 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Santa Clara 0-1 and lost to FC Porto 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 10D 16L from the last 31 games (16% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Santa Clara have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Santa Clara 3-2 and beat Casa Pia 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 10L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCasa Pia
No reported absences
Santa Clara
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Iancu Ioan Vasilica has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Iancu Ioan Vasilica to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Casa Pia have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Santa Clara 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santa Clara have generated 0.95 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santa Clara player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
