Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 6th in the Serie A standings, Cruzeiro has accumulated 45 points from 28 matches, with a record of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses. Their goal difference stands at +2, which indicates a balanced performance in terms of goals scored and conceded. Despite their recent form showing two wins and three losses in the last five matches, their overall season performance remains stronger than their opponent. Sao Paulo, on the other hand, sits in 11th place with 36 points from 27 matches, having secured 10 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses. Their goal-scoring has been relatively modest, with only 32 goals scored and 30 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of +2. Recent form for Sao Paulo includes two wins, one draw, and two losses, suggesting inconsistency as they seek to climb the standings. The model gives Cruzeiro a win probability of 51.4%, with a 26.9% chance of a draw and a 21.7% chance for a Sao Paulo victory. While Cruzeiro is favoured, a potential caveat is that their recent form has not been ideal, which could lead to an unexpected result. The full method of prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using an in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Sao Paulo average 1.2 goals per game.
Cruzeiro manage games at home, conceding just 1.08 goals per match. Sao Paulo score 1.21 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Cruzeiro have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Cruzeiro clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Cruzeiro are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.74 | 3.58 | 4.55 | 1.92 | 1.82 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.60 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.76 | 3.74 | 4.94 | 1.99 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.21 | 3.88 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.79 | 3.69 | 4.69 | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.85 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Cruzeiro and Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo leads with 4 wins, while Cruzeiro has secured 3 victories, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and a few more decisive outcomes, with Sao Paulo's 4-1 win being the heaviest margin. Notably, the majority of matches have been closely contested, with 6 of the 10 fixtures ending with a margin of just one goal or as draws. Cruzeiro last defeated Sao Paulo in 2023, while Sao Paulo has won their last three encounters, suggesting a competitive rivalry.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCruzeiro have won 14 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Cruzeiro 2-0 and beat Cruzeiro 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 15D 11L from the last 48 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 2-0 and lost to Palmeiras 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 15L from the last 47 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
15 playersCruzeiro7
Sao Paulo8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Wilton Sampaio has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cruzeiro have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Sao Paulo 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cruzeiro have generated 0.94 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cruzeiro player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
