Fluminense vs Coritiba Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fluminense vs Coritiba
Match Preview
The model favours Fluminense to win this match against Coritiba, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fluminense currently sits in fourth place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a solid season with 13 wins, 9 draws, and 6 losses from 28 matches played. Their goal difference of +8, with 44 goals scored and 36 conceded, reflects a balanced performance. Recent form has seen them secure three wins in their last five outings, indicating a return to form after a couple of setbacks. Coritiba, positioned ninth, has recorded 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, resulting in 38 points. Their goal difference of -6, with 37 goals scored and 43 conceded, highlights defensive vulnerabilities. While they have shown some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, their inconsistent performances could hinder their ability to compete effectively against a strong opponent like Fluminense. The model gives Fluminense a 61.1% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 24.3%, and Coritiba has a 14.5% chance of victory. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 46.4%. However, a potential caveat for Fluminense could be complacency, as they face a mid-table team that may play with less pressure. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
Fluminense have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Fluminense win as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Fluminense clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Fluminense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fluminense vs Coritiba| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.50 | 6.70 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 1.46 | 4.70 | 7.13 | 1.74 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.43 | 3.74 | 5.61 | 1.86 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.45 | 4.33 | 7.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.47 | 4.64 | 6.91 | 1.70 | 2.21 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.75 | 7.00 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Fluminense leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Fluminense and Coritiba, Fluminense has won 4 times, Coritiba has won 2 times, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and high-scoring encounters, with notable matches including Fluminense's 5-2 victory in 2022 and a 4-0 win in 2020. The presence of four draws suggests a balanced rivalry, though Fluminense has had the edge with more wins. Coritiba's last victory over Fluminense came in May 2022, indicating a struggle to secure wins in recent fixtures.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 39 | LDLLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFluminense have won 18 of their last 27 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Fluminense 4-0 and beat Fluminense 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 16D 11L from the last 49 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Coritiba have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Coritiba 1-0 and lost to Fluminense 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 13L from the last 38 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
19 playersFluminense9
Coritiba10
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fluminense have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Coritiba 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fluminense have generated 1.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fluminense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
