Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Henan Jianye. This prediction is largely supported by Guoan's strong season performance, where they currently sit in second place with 41 points from 27 matches. Their record of 12 wins, 10 draws, and only 5 losses highlights their consistency, and they boast a goal difference of +19, which indicates a solid attacking and defensive balance. In contrast, Henan Jianye finds themselves in 13th position with 28 points. Their season has been marked by a struggle for form, as they have not secured a win in their last five matches, managing only draws in that stretch. With a goal difference of -2, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by a more potent Guoan attack. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Beijing Guoan, with a key market indicator showing a significant lean towards their victory. However, one caveat to consider is Henan Jianye's potential for a surprise performance, especially at home, which could disrupt the expected outcome. The full method of our analysis can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model assesses fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Henan Jianye vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.08 | 3.60 | 2.07 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 1.42 | 2.61 | |
| 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.10 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.70 | |
| 3.14 | 3.60 | 2.12 | 1.48 | 2.53 | — | — | |
| 2.76 | 3.34 | 1.93 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.19 | 3.73 | 2.15 | 1.49 | 2.52 | 1.42 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.42 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.05 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Beijing Guoan stands at 4 wins for Henan, 1 draw, and 5 wins for Beijing. This indicates a closely contested rivalry with Beijing holding a slight edge overall. The scorelines suggest a mix of tight encounters and occasional heavy wins, such as Beijing's 3-0 victory in the FA Cup. Notably, there has been only one draw in their last ten meetings, highlighting a tendency for decisive outcomes. The last time Henan Jianye triumphed over Beijing Guoan was in May 2026, indicating that recent matches have favored Beijing.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | 20 | 52 | LDWLW |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 41 | WDDDW |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 | DDWDD |
| 5 |  Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 | LWLDW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 37 | DWLWW |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35 | 37 | -2 | 28 | DDDDD |
| 14 |  Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 | LDDWD |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHenan Jianye have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Henan Jianye 0-0 and drew with Henan Jianye 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 13D 11L from the last 37 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 10 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Beijing Guoan 0-3 and drew with SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 8L from the last 40 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersHenan Jianye
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Henan Jianye have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
