Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction, Tips & Odds
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Match Preview
The model favours GIL Vicente to win this match against Moreirense, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. GIL Vicente sits in 9th place with 8 points after 6 matches, boasting a balanced record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They have scored 5 goals and conceded the same number, indicating a solid defensive performance that could be crucial in this matchup. Moreirense, on the other hand, is currently positioned 12th with the same points total but has played one more match. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, alongside a goal difference of -6, highlights their struggles this season. With 8 goals scored and 14 conceded, they have shown vulnerability at the back, which could be exploited by a more disciplined GIL Vicente team. According to the model output, GIL Vicente has a win probability that reflects their slightly better position and form. However, one potential caveat is Moreirense's home advantage, which could bolster their performance despite their overall struggles. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains their in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 22% of matches. GIL Vicente average 1.4 goals per game.
Moreirense manage games at home, conceding just 1.50 goals per match. GIL Vicente score 1.39 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
GIL Vicente have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. GIL Vicente are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Moreirense vs GIL Vicente| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.36 | 3.18 | 2.16 | 2.35 | 1.55 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 3.54 | 3.15 | 2.31 | 2.46 | 1.59 | — | — | |
| 3.14 | 2.92 | 2.23 | 2.31 | 1.60 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.15 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 3.50 | 3.32 | 2.25 | 2.44 | 1.61 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.30 | 2.42 | 1.60 | 1.98 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.20 | 2.25 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (GIL Vicente leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Moreirense and GIL Vicente, the record stands at Moreirense 3 wins, 3 draws, and GIL Vicente 4 wins. This indicates a competitive rivalry, with GIL Vicente having a slight edge. The scorelines reflect a mix of close encounters, as seen in the three matches that ended in draws and several one-goal margins. Notably, there have been no heavy defeats in this period, suggesting that matches tend to be tightly contested. The last time Moreirense lost to GIL Vicente was in early 2025, showing a relatively balanced contest in recent years.
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 24 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 18 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 14 | WDLDW |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 14 | WWDLL |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 | LDWLL |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 4 | LWLDL |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMoreirense have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Moreirense 0-1 and beat Moreirense 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 16L from the last 32 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
GIL Vicente have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat GIL Vicente 1-2 and beat União Santarém 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMoreirense
No reported absences
GIL Vicente
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Miguel Bertolo Nogueira has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Miguel Bertolo Nogueira to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Moreirense have averaged 2.5 corners per match at home; GIL Vicente 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
GIL Vicente have generated 0.92 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 2.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. GIL Vicente player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
