Palmeiras vs Bahia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Palmeiras vs Bahia
Match Preview
The model favours Palmeiras to win against Bahia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned second in the Serie A standings, Palmeiras has accumulated 57 points from 28 matches, boasting a solid record of 16 wins, 9 draws, and only 3 losses. With a goal difference of 26, their defensive strength has been notable, conceding just 21 goals this season. Despite a mixed form recently, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent at home. Bahia sits in fifth place with 46 points, having played the same number of matches as their rivals. Their performance this season has been commendable, with 12 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses. However, they have a lower goal difference of 8, having scored 43 goals while conceding 35. Bahia has shown strong form recently, winning four out of their last five matches, which could give them confidence going into this fixture. The model gives Palmeiras a win probability of 58.2%, with a 23.8% chance of a draw and 17.9% for Bahia to win. There's also a 54.3% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. One caveat for Palmeiras is their recent inconsistency, which could be exploited by a high-flying Bahia side. The full method, based on our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Palmeiras win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Palmeiras clean sheets, in line with their 45% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Palmeiras vs Bahia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.30 | 5.25 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 1.56 | 4.52 | 5.78 | 1.59 | 2.45 | — | — | |
| 1.47 | 3.77 | 4.84 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.58 | 4.43 | 5.42 | 1.59 | 2.42 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.45 | 5.80 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Palmeiras and Bahia, Palmeiras has won 6 times, Bahia has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including four matches decided by a single goal. However, Palmeiras has recorded some significant victories, including a 3-0 win and a 3-2 win. Bahia's last victory in this fixture was in April 2025, suggesting that Palmeiras has been more dominant in recent encounters. Overall, while Bahia has had success, Palmeiras has a stronger recent head-to-head record.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 49 | LWLLW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPalmeiras have won 20 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Fluminense 0-1 and beat Corinthians 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 12D 5L from the last 51 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Bahia have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Palmeiras 1-0 and beat RB Bragantino 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 10L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedPalmeiras3-4-2-1Confirmed
Bahia4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersPalmeiras2
Bahia2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Braulio da Silva Machado has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Palmeiras have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Bahia 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.64 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 6.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
