Santos vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting at the top of the Serie A standings, Flamengo has consistently demonstrated their strength this season, with 18 wins from 28 matches. Their impressive goal difference of +32 highlights a potent attack and a solid defence, allowing only 23 goals against them. Flamengo's recent form, which includes four wins and a draw in their last five matches, further solidifies their position as the favourites in this encounter. On the other hand, Santos is currently in 8th place with 38 points from 27 games. While they have shown some form recently, securing four wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has been inconsistent. With a goal difference of just +1, Santos has struggled to convert their chances into goals, which could be a significant factor against a team like Flamengo, who are adept at capitalising on defensive errors. The model gives Flamengo a 49.8% win probability, while Santos has a 23.9% chance of winning. One key market to note is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, projected at 51.1%. However, the caveat to consider is that if Santos can maintain their recent form and exploit any defensive lapses from Flamengo, they could pose a serious challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.15 | 3.80 | 1.75 | 1.63 | 2.19 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 4.33 | 3.75 | 1.75 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 4.61 | 3.94 | 1.77 | 1.65 | 2.30 | — | — | |
| 3.48 | 3.23 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.73 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 4.28 | 3.92 | 1.81 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
Betano | 4.40 | 3.95 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.73 | 1.61 | 2.13 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Santos and Flamengo, Flamengo has won 7 times, while Santos has secured 3 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, yet Flamengo's dominance is evident, particularly with three of their wins coming by a margin of two or more goals. Santos has managed to capture wins in recent encounters, including a 2-1 victory in November 2023, but overall, Flamengo's recent success, including a 4-1 win in December 2020, highlights a lopsided trend in their head-to-head history.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 66 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 53 | LWDWD |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 46 | 4 | 51 | WLWWL |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 51 | LLWWL |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 8 | Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 45 | WLDWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 26 | DDDLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 18 | LLLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 12 of their last 25 matches at home, drawing 10 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Santos 2-2 and beat Santos 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 17D 14L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flamengo have won 15 of their last 27 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flamengo 0-3 and drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 12D 6L from the last 52 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersSantos5
Flamengo5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Anderson Daronco has averaged 8.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Flamengo 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
