Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win against Yunnan Yukun, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Shanghai Shenhua currently occupies 8th place in the standings, with a record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses from 26 matches. Their goal difference of +6 indicates a solid attacking performance, scoring 52 goals while conceding 46. Recent form shows they have found some momentum, winning three of their last five matches, which could provide the confidence needed to secure a home victory. On the other hand, Yunnan Yukun sits in 4th place with a record of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses. They have scored slightly more goals than Shenhua, with 54, but their goal difference of +3 suggests they have struggled defensively, allowing 51 goals. Their recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss in the last five matches, showing they are competitive but may lack the consistency needed to overcome a challenging away fixture. According to the model, Shanghai Shenhua has a win probability of around 45%, while Yunnan Yukun holds a probability of 30%. A key market statistic is that Shenhua is favoured to win at home, which typically boosts their performance. However, if Yunnan Yukun can exploit defensive lapses, they could turn the tide. The full method is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as analysed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.5% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua win as the most likely scoreline at 10.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Yunnan Yukun| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 4.80 | 4.45 | 1.16 | 4.15 | 1.26 | 3.40 | |
| 1.53 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.20 | 4.50 | 1.25 | 3.80 | |
| 1.60 | 5.17 | 4.43 | 1.22 | 4.42 | — | — | |
| 1.49 | 4.42 | 4.05 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.60 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.30 | 3.30 | |
| 1.57 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.20 | 4.33 | 1.28 | 3.50 | |
| 1.59 | 4.98 | 4.62 | 1.16 | 4.15 | 1.26 | 3.48 | |
Betano | 1.57 | 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.21 | 3.90 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.18 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 3.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 2-0)Shanghai Shenhua has a strong head-to-head record against Yunnan Yukun, winning 2 out of the last 3 matches, with 1 draw and no wins for Yunnan Yukun. The scorelines indicate competitive encounters, particularly the high-scoring 4-4 draw, while the other matches saw Shenhua secure narrow victories of 2-1 and 3-1. This suggests that while Shenhua has been successful, the matches have typically been closely contested rather than one-sided. Yunnan Yukun's inability to win in these fixtures highlights their struggles against Shenhua in recent meetings.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | 20 | 52 | LDWLW |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 41 | WDDDW |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 | DDWDD |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 | LWLDW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 37 | DWLWW |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 34 | WWLWL |
| 14 |  Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 | LDDWD |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 9 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Yunnan Yukun 7-1 and drew with Zenit 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 9D 15L from the last 41 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Yunnan Yukun have won 5 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Yunnan Yukun 7-1 and lost to Hangzhou Greentown 6-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 13L from the last 39 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedShanghai Shenhua4-4-2Confirmed
Yunnan Yukun4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Yunnan Yukun
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Yunnan Yukun 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 3.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 7.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
