Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Tips & Odds
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis
Match Preview
The model favours Aris Thessalonikis to win against Levadiakos, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Aris sits in fifth place in the Super League 1 standings, boasting a record of four wins, one draw, and two losses from their seven matches. They have scored 10 goals while conceding 13, indicating a somewhat leaky defence. However, their ability to secure victories, especially with three wins in their last five matches, suggests a solid offensive capability that Levadiakos may struggle to contain. In contrast, Levadiakos is currently in 13th place, having yet to secure a win this season. Their record of two draws and five losses has resulted in a troubling goal difference of -11, with no goals scored in their last five matches. This lack of offensive output highlights their struggles, making it difficult for them to compete effectively against a team like Aris, who have shown more resilience and attacking prowess. The model indicates that Aris has a strong win probability, reflecting their current form and standing. However, the caveat lies in Levadiakos potentially finding a way to frustrate Aris, as they have managed two draws this season. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, relying on expected goals and actual results throughout the season as assessed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Levadiakos manage games at home, conceding just 1.56 goals per match. Aris Thessalonikis score 1.33 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Aris Thessalonikis have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Aris Thessalonikis are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.34 | 3.25 | 2.14 | 2.13 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 3.34 | 3.25 | 2.16 | 2.13 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 3.40 | 3.35 | 2.18 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aris Thessalonikis leads 5-1)In the last ten matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis, Aris has won five times, Levadiakos has won once, and there have been four draws. The scorelines indicate that while there have been some competitive matches, Aris has generally had the upper hand, with several notable victories, including a 3-0 win and a 4-1 win. The presence of four draws suggests that Levadiakos has been able to hold Aris to a stalemate on multiple occasions, but they have not secured a victory since 2025. Overall, this head-to-head record leans in favor of Aris Thessalonikis.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 4 | Aris Thessalonikis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 5 |  PAOK | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  OFI | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | WLLDW |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 13 |  Atromitos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 14 |  Volos NFC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 0 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLevadiakos have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Levadiakos 0-0 and lost to Levadiakos 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 13L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Aris Thessalonikis have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-2 and lost to PAOK 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 10D 7L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLevadiakos
No reported absences
Aris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Levadiakos have averaged 2.7 corners per match at home; Aris Thessalonikis 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aris Thessalonikis have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aris Thessalonikis player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.