PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction, Tips & Odds
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win against Asteras Tripolis, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. PAOK currently sits in 3rd place in the Super League standings, having accumulated 15 points from seven matches. Their season has been strong, with five wins and only two losses, resulting in a positive goal difference of six. Notably, they have scored 15 goals, demonstrating their attacking prowess, while conceding nine. In contrast, Asteras Tripolis is struggling in 11th place with just five points from their seven games. Their record of one win, two draws, and four losses highlights their difficulties this season, reflected in a goal difference of -8. With only seven goals scored and 15 goals conceded, they face challenges in both defence and attack. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for PAOK, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market to consider is PAOK to win by at least two goals. However, a potential pitfall for PAOK could be complacency, as they may underestimate a lower-ranked opponent. For further insights into our prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of matches. Asteras Tripolis average 0.9 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature PAOK clean sheets, in line with their 36% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.29 | 5.15 | 9.40 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.80 | |
| 1.28 | 5.00 | 9.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.30 | 5.15 | 9.30 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
Betano | 1.32 | 5.40 | 9.50 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PAOK leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis, PAOK has won 7 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw, while Asteras Tripolis has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with PAOK achieving several narrow wins alongside a few more decisive victories, such as a 4-1 result. The presence of three draws suggests Asteras Tripolis has been competitive at times, but they have not won against PAOK in this stretch, highlighting a clear dominance by PAOK in their recent encounters.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 17 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 | WWWDL |
| 5 | PAOK | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 15 | LWLWW |
| 6 |  OFI | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | WLLDW |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 6 | DLWDD |
| 12 |  Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 13 |  Atromitos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 | LLLDD |
| 14 |  Volos NFC | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 0 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPAOK have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat PAOK 2-1 and lost to PAOK 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 12L from the last 39 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Asteras Tripolis have won 2 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Panathinaikos 5-1 and drew with OFI 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 16L from the last 35 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPAOK
No reported absences
Asteras Tripolis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PAOK have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Asteras Tripolis 6.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.85 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
