Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win against Qingdao Jonoon, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Beijing Guoan currently sits in a strong third position in the league, having accumulated 38 points from 26 matches. Their season has been characterised by a solid balance of 11 wins and just 5 losses, demonstrating resilience and consistency. With a goal difference of +16, their defensive capabilities have been evident, conceding only 33 goals this season. In contrast, Qingdao Jonoon is struggling at the bottom of the table in 16th place, with only 14 points from 26 matches. Their form has been particularly concerning, as they have lost their last five matches without securing a single point. With a goal difference of -19, they have conceded significantly more goals than they have scored, indicating vulnerabilities in both their attack and defence. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Beijing Guoan, with a projected score of 2-0. One key market stat suggests that the likelihood of Beijing Guoan winning by two goals or more is considerable. However, a potential caveat is Qingdao Jonoon's ability to surprise, particularly if they manage to improve their form unexpectedly. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains the in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.4% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.30 | 5.05 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 6.32 | 5.62 | 1.41 | 1.38 | 3.08 | — | — | |
| 5.03 | 4.06 | 1.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.38 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 7.01 | 5.47 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
Betano | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.38 | 1.37 | 2.87 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan stands at 2 wins for each side and 2 draws over the last 6 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with two matches ending in draws, while the wins include both narrow and heavy results, such as Beijing Guoan's 6-0 victory and Qingdao Jonoon's 4-2 win. This suggests that while both teams have experienced successes, the results have varied significantly, showcasing moments of dominance as well as competitive balance. Neither team has a clear upper hand in recent encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 51 | 31 | 20 | 52 | LDWLW |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 41 | WDDDW |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 40 | WDWDL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 | DDWDD |
| 5 |  Yunnan Yukun | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 38 | LWLDW |
| 6 |  Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 37 | DWLWW |
| 14 |  Shenyang Urban | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 25 | LLLDL |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 | LDDWD |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQingdao Jonoon have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Beijing Guoan 0-3 and lost to Wuhan Three Towns 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 22L from the last 38 games (21% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 10 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Beijing Guoan 0-3 and drew with SHANGHAI SIPG 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 8L from the last 40 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersQingdao Jonoon
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Qingdao Jonoon have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
