Aberdeen vs Falkirk Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Match Preview
The model favours Aberdeen to win against Falkirk, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Aberdeen currently sits in 8th place after eight matches, having secured two wins, two draws, and four losses. Their season has been marked by a goal difference of -2, scoring 7 goals while conceding 9. Recent form shows a slight uptick, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a team that is starting to find some rhythm. Falkirk, on the other hand, is struggling in 11th place with just one win from their eight fixtures. Their record includes three draws and four losses, leading to a goal difference of -4. Despite scoring the same number of goals as Aberdeen, they have conceded 11, which highlights defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form shows only one win in the last five matches, contributing to a lack of momentum. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Aberdeen, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a caveat to consider is that both teams have shown inconsistency this season, meaning Falkirk could exploit any defensive lapses from Aberdeen. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Aberdeen have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Aberdeen clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aberdeen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aberdeen vs Falkirk| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.45 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.01 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.33 | 1.90 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.97 | 3.45 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 1.88 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Falkirk leads 2-0)In the last three matches between Aberdeen and Falkirk, the record stands at 0 wins for Aberdeen, 1 draw, and 2 wins for Falkirk. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with two matches ending in narrow victories for Falkirk by 1-0, while the most recent encounter resulted in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that while Falkirk has had the upper hand, the matches have typically been low-scoring and closely contested. Aberdeen has not secured a win against Falkirk in this sample, highlighting their struggles in recent fixtures.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 |  ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | WWLDW |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 | LWLDW |
| 10 |  Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAberdeen have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aberdeen 3-1 and lost to Aberdeen 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 17L from the last 40 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Falkirk have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hibernian 1-2 and drew with ST Johnstone 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 14L from the last 36 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAberdeen4-2-3-1Confirmed
Falkirk4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAberdeen
No reported absences
Falkirk
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Aberdeen have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Falkirk 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aberdeen have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aberdeen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.