ST Mirren vs Hibernian Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Mirren vs Hibernian
Match Preview
The model favours ST Mirren to win against Hibernian with a projected scoreline of 2-1. ST Mirren currently sits in 7th place in the Premiership, having accumulated 10 points from 8 matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with three wins, one draw, and four losses. Key statistics include their goal difference of -6, which suggests defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 8 goals, indicating some attacking potential. On the other hand, Hibernian finds themselves in 10th place with only 7 points from their 8 matches. With two wins, one draw, and five losses, their season has been disappointing, particularly in the defensive department where they have conceded 12 goals. Their recent form shows they have struggled, with only one win in their last five matches, which raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively. The model output indicates a win probability of around 55% for ST Mirren, which suggests they are the more likely team to secure the victory. However, a potential caveat is that if Hibernian can improve their defensive organization and capitalize on set pieces, they could pose a threat. The full method details how we reached this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Mirren vs Hibernian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.12 | 3.40 | 2.17 | 1.81 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.25 | 3.54 | 2.26 | 1.88 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 2.97 | 3.19 | 2.18 | 1.85 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.14 | 3.40 | 2.19 | 1.81 | 1.93 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
Betano | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.79 | 1.89 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last 10 matches between St Mirren and Hibernian, both teams have won 3 times, with 4 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of narrow and more decisive outcomes, with several draws reflecting closely contested games. Notably, there have been two matches that ended with a score of 3-0, indicating that while some fixtures have been one-sided, others have been tightly fought. The most recent draw was a 2-2 result, showcasing a pattern of competitive encounters between the sides, with no clear dominance by either team in recent history.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 | Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Mirren have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Dundee 2-1 and lost to Dundee Utd 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 6D 17L from the last 38 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Hibernian have won 8 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Dundee Utd 1-0 and beat Ross County 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 16L from the last 39 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
Hibernian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Mirren have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Hibernian 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 1.08 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.