Dundee vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Tips & Odds
Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Match Preview
The model favours Dundee to win against Kilmarnock, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Dundee currently sits in a strong 4th position in the Premiership, having secured 13 points from their first eight matches. Their season form has been relatively solid, with four wins, one draw, and three losses. Key to their performance has been a positive goal difference of +3, with 11 goals scored and only 8 conceded, indicating a balanced attack and defence. In contrast, Kilmarnock finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 12th position with only 5 points from 8 matches. Their form has been troubling, recording just one win, alongside two draws and five losses. They have struggled significantly in both scoring and defending, with only 7 goals scored and a concerning 18 goals conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -11. This indicates a lack of offensive threat and vulnerabilities at the back. The model output suggests a win probability favouring Dundee, with their chances of victory significantly higher than Kilmarnock's. However, one caveat to consider is that Kilmarnock could potentially find a way to exploit any defensive lapses from Dundee, which may complicate the predicted outcome. The full method of this analysis, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizes an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Dundee have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Dundee are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Dundee vs Kilmarnock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.94 | 3.70 | 3.46 | 1.57 | 2.31 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.99 | 3.84 | 3.67 | 1.65 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 1.96 | 3.47 | 3.24 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.46 | 1.57 | 2.31 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 1.62 | 2.35 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.57 | 2.21 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Dundee leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Dundee and Kilmarnock shows Dundee winning 3 matches, Kilmarnock winning 2, and 5 matches ending in draws over the last 10 encounters. This indicates a relatively balanced rivalry, with both teams having periods of success. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests, with several matches ending in draws and only a couple of narrow wins. Notably, Kilmarnock's last victory over Dundee came in May 2025, suggesting that they have struggled to secure wins in recent matchups. Overall, the matches have been competitive, with no dominant side emerging in this timeframe.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 |  ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 10 |  Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonDundee have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Dundee 2-2 and beat Dundee 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 16L from the last 39 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kilmarnock have won 6 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kilmarnock 3-0 and lost to Rangers 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 14L from the last 37 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDundee
No reported absences
Kilmarnock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Dundee have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Kilmarnock 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Dundee have generated 1.08 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Dundee player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.