ST Johnstone vs Motherwell Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
Match Preview
The model favours ST Johnstone to win against Motherwell, predicting a scoreline of 2-1. ST Johnstone currently sits in 5th place in the Premiership, having played 8 matches this season. Their form shows a balanced performance with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, resulting in a goal difference of 0. With 10 goals scored and 10 conceded, they have managed to maintain a competitive position in the league, highlighting their ability to score while also facing challenges defensively. In contrast, Motherwell is positioned 9th with 8 points from their 8 matches, achieving only 2 wins alongside 2 draws and 4 losses. Their goal difference of -4, with 9 goals scored and 13 conceded, indicates difficulties in both scoring and defending. Their recent form is particularly concerning, having lost four consecutive matches, which may impact their confidence heading into this fixture. According to the model, ST Johnstone has a win probability of 58% against Motherwell. While the data suggests a favorable outcome for ST Johnstone, a key concern is their inconsistency, as illustrated by their equal goals for and against. Any lapse in concentration could provide Motherwell with an opportunity to capitalize. The full method and analysis are detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. ST Johnstone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.52 | 3.32 | 2.65 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 2.61 | 3.38 | 2.83 | 1.86 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.49 | 3.20 | 2.54 | 1.86 | 1.98 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.70 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.52 | 3.32 | 2.65 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
Betano | 2.57 | 3.50 | 2.67 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.63 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Motherwell leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between St Johnstone and Motherwell, Motherwell leads with 4 wins, while St Johnstone has 3 victories and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; five of the encounters were decided by just a one-goal margin. Both teams have shown the ability to secure narrow wins, as evidenced by the frequent scorelines of 1-0 and 2-1. The last time St Johnstone defeated Motherwell was in May 2024, suggesting that Motherwell has had the upper hand in more recent matchups.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 27 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 23 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLWDL |
| 4 |  Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 14 | LDWWL |
| 6 |  ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 | WLLLL |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 | LDWDL |
| 10 | Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 | LLLLL |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 | LWLDW |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 7 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Johnstone have won 5 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with ST Johnstone 1-1 and drew with ST Johnstone 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 5L from the last 22 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Motherwell have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kilmarnock 3-2 and lost to Dundee 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 18L from the last 38 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedST Johnstone4-2-3-1Confirmed
Motherwell4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Johnstone
No reported absences
Motherwell
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Johnstone have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Motherwell 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Johnstone have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Johnstone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.