Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah to win this match against Al Shabab with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Al-Ahli Jeddah is currently in 6th place in the league, having secured 15 points from 8 matches, with a solid record of 5 wins and 3 losses. Their attacking prowess is evident, as they have scored 20 goals while conceding just 10, resulting in a goal difference of +10. This season, they have shown consistency, particularly in their last five matches, where they have recorded three wins and only one loss. On the other hand, Al Shabab finds themselves in a challenging position at 13th in the standings, with just 7 points from their 8 matches. Their record of 1 win, 4 draws, and 3 losses highlights their struggle to convert draws into victories. While they have managed to score 9 goals, their defensive issues are apparent, having conceded 11 goals and holding a goal difference of -2. Their recent form, with only one win in the last five matches, adds to the concern for their supporters. The model assigns a higher win probability to Al-Ahli Jeddah based on their current form and overall season performance. However, one caveat to consider is that Al Shabab could pull off a surprise if they manage to tighten their defence and convert scoring opportunities. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have been the stronger side, winning 62% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Al-Ahli Jeddah are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al Shabab vs Al-Ahli Jeddah| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.08 | 3.62 | 1.93 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.46 | 2.45 | |
| 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.05 | 1.50 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 3.13 | 3.81 | 2.06 | 1.51 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.81 | 3.24 | 1.98 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 3.22 | 3.78 | 2.02 | 1.51 | 2.38 | 1.46 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.90 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al Shabab leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ahli Jeddah stands at 4 wins for Al Shabab, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah over the last 10 matches. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive fixtures, with several close matches, including three draws. Notably, the most recent encounter saw Al-Ahli Jeddah winning 5-2, suggesting they can secure heavy victories. However, Al Shabab also recorded significant wins, such as a 4-3 result. Overall, the record reflects a relatively balanced rivalry, with neither side dominating consistently in recent encounters.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Al-Nassr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWLWW |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  NEOM | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 19 | WLLDW |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 | WDWDL |
| 16 |  Al-Fateh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 6 | LLWLL |
| 17 |  Al Taawon | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 4 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  Abha | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl Shabab have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al Shabab 2-2 and beat Al Shabab 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 11D 12L from the last 33 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 10 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 2-3 and beat Al-Wasl FC 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 6D 9L from the last 40 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Shabab
No reported absences
Al-Ahli Jeddah
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al Shabab have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Al-Ahli Jeddah 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Ahli Jeddah have generated 2.55 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 62% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Ahli Jeddah player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
