Bahia vs Sao Paulo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Sao Paulo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bahia currently sits in a strong fifth position in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 49 points from 30 matches. Their season has been characterized by a solid home record, with 13 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses overall. Notably, they have scored 44 goals while conceding only 36, highlighting their ability to find the net while maintaining a respectable defensive record. On the other hand, Sao Paulo is positioned tenth, with 39 points from the same number of matches. Their season has seen a struggle for consistency, as evidenced by their 11 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses. While they have managed to score 35 goals, their goal difference stands at zero, suggesting they have been equally vulnerable at the back. Their recent form shows some promise with two wins in their last five matches, but they will need to improve significantly to contest against a top-five side like Bahia. According to the model, Bahia has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage indicates that Bahia is favoured to win by a margin of one goal. However, the caveat here is that if Sao Paulo can tighten their defence and capitalize on any mistakes, they could pose a threat to Bahia's ambitions. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bahia clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Sao Paulo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.85 | 3.68 | 3.80 | 1.68 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.91 | 3.80 | 4.04 | 1.77 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.44 | 3.57 | 1.70 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.92 | 1.72 | 2.17 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.70 | 3.80 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sao Paulo leads 6-2)In the last 10 encounters between Bahia and Sao Paulo, Bahia has won 2 matches, there have been 2 draws, and Sao Paulo has claimed victory 6 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency towards Sao Paulo's dominance, with several matches resulting in clear wins, including a 3-0 and a 3-1 victory. Bahia's wins have been narrower, with their highest score being 2-1. The recent match history shows Sao Paulo has been more successful, particularly in the last few years, with Bahia last winning against Sao Paulo in November 2021.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 7 | Bahia | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 50 | DLWLL |
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 43 | DWWLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 11 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flamengo 0-3 and beat Mirassol 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 12L from the last 40 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sao Paulo have won 5 of their last 23 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 2-0 and lost to Palmeiras 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 11D 15L from the last 47 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBahia
No reported absences
Sao Paulo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Anderson Daronco has averaged 8.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Sao Paulo 7.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 2.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
