Corinthians vs Mirassol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Corinthians vs Mirassol
Match Preview
The model favours Mirassol to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Mirassol currently sits in 14th position in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 36 points from 31 matches. Their form has shown an uptick recently, with three wins in their last five matches. The team's scoring ability is evident, as they have netted 36 goals this season, although they have also conceded 44, resulting in a goal difference of -8. In contrast, Corinthians is struggling in 16th place, with only 32 points from 30 games. Their recent form has been concerning, as they have lost all of their last five matches, failing to secure a single point. This poor run has contributed to their negative goal difference of -7, with 31 goals scored and 38 conceded. With such a lack of momentum, they will need a significant turnaround to challenge Mirassol effectively. According to the model, Mirassol has a win probability of around 55%, with a projected score of 2-1 in their favour. However, a caveat to consider is Corinthians' potential for an unexpected resurgence at home, which could complicate things for Mirassol. The full method behind this prediction is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 38% of matches. Mirassol average 1.2 goals per game.
Corinthians manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. Mirassol score 1.18 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 34% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Corinthians win as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Corinthians clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Corinthians vs Mirassol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.71 | 3.62 | 4.70 | 1.97 | 1.78 | 1.88 | 1.80 | |
| 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.90 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.65 | 5.06 | 2.02 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 1.72 | 3.21 | 3.94 | 2.00 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.75 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.76 | 3.73 | 4.84 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.88 | 1.82 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 3.70 | 4.70 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Corinthians leads 6-2)In their last nine encounters, Corinthians have won six times, Mirassol has two victories, and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate that Corinthians have often secured their wins with a margin, including three matches with a two-goal difference and two 3-0 victories. Mirassol's wins have been narrow, with both victories featuring a single goal margin. The draw frequency is low, showing a clear tendency for Corinthians to dominate this matchup historically. Mirassol's last win over Corinthians was in May 2026, suggesting a significant challenge for them in this rivalry.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 15 | Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 37 | DWLDW |
| 17 | Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 | LDLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthians have won 11 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Vitoria 1-1 and lost to Fluminense 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 18L from the last 50 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Mirassol have won 5 of their last 24 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Bahia 1-0 and drew with RB Bragantino 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 15D 18L from the last 49 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCorinthians
No reported absences
Mirassol
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Matheus Delgado Candancan has averaged 5.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Corinthians have averaged 6.6 corners per match at home; Mirassol 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 34% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
