Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
Match Preview
The model favours Flamengo to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. As the current league leaders, Flamengo has demonstrated strong form throughout the season, boasting 19 wins from 30 matches. Their impressive goal difference of +33 highlights their attacking prowess alongside a solid defence, which has conceded only 25 goals. Flamengo's recent form, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicates they are capable of maintaining pressure at the top of the table. On the other hand, Vasco da Gama, positioned 14th, has been performing well lately, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. Despite their recent success, their overall season record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses illustrates the challenges they have faced. With a goal difference of -6, they have struggled defensively, which could be a concern against a high-scoring team like Flamengo. The model indicates Flamengo has a high win probability, reflecting their dominant position in the league. However, one caveat is that if Vasco can maintain their recent form and exploit any defensive lapses from Flamengo, they could pose a threat. For a detailed explanation of the prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we describe our in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Flamengo have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Flamengo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.90 | 3.76 | 1.81 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 3.98 | 3.99 | 1.82 | 1.74 | 2.13 | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 4.02 | 3.88 | 1.87 | 1.76 | 2.12 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
Betano | 4.30 | 3.95 | 1.85 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.80 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flamengo leads 5-0)In the last 10 matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo, the record stands at 0 wins for Vasco, 5 draws, and 5 wins for Flamengo. This indicates a clear advantage for Flamengo, who have not only won half of these encounters but also demonstrated their dominance with a notable 6-1 victory in their most recent match. The scorelines suggest that while Flamengo has secured a number of narrow wins, they have also achieved some heavy victories, contrasting with Vasco's inability to find the net in several fixtures. Vasco's last win against Flamengo dates back well beyond this sample, highlighting their struggles in this rivalry.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 38 | WLDWW |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 13 of their last 26 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Boca Juniors 1-3 and drew with Remo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 15D 16L from the last 52 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Flamengo have won 15 of their last 27 matches on the road, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flamengo 0-3 and drew with Estudiantes L.P. 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 34W 12D 6L from the last 52 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Flamengo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Bruno Arleu has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Flamengo 7.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Flamengo have generated 1.77 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flamengo player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
