Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Paranaense to win against Gremio, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Atletico Paranaense currently sits in a strong third position in the league, with a record of 15 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses from 30 matches. Their goal-scoring ability has been a standout feature this season, with 49 goals scored, while their defensive record shows they have conceded 35. This combination of offensive strength and solid defence contributes significantly to their success. In contrast, Gremio finds themselves struggling in the relegation zone, positioned 18th with only 7 wins and 31 points from 30 matches. Their form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, recording three draws and two losses. This lack of momentum is reflected in their goal difference of -8, indicating a vulnerability in both defence and attack. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Atletico Paranaense in this match. While they are favoured to win, Gremio's desperation for points could lead to an unexpected performance, making them a potential threat despite their current form. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Gremio manage games at home, conceding just 1.11 goals per match. Atletico Paranaense score 1.56 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Atletico Paranaense have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Atletico Paranaense are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.35 | 3.28 | 2.90 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.88 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.38 | 3.34 | 3.05 | 1.93 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 2.22 | 3.04 | 2.69 | 1.88 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.43 | 3.38 | 2.99 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.40 | 2.85 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense stands at 5 wins for each team with no draws in their last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with both teams having equal success. The scorelines reveal a mix of narrow and moderate victories, with Gremio winning by 2-0 on two occasions, while Atletico Paranaense has also claimed a 4-2 win. There have been no recent trends favoring one side, and the last win for the trailing team occurred within the last couple of years, suggesting competitive parity in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 34 | 69 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | 36 | 67 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 54 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 54 | DLWDW |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 51 | LLLWW |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 50 | WWDWD |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 31 | LDDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 26 | LDDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 21 | WLLLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGremio have won 15 of their last 29 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Cruzeiro 2-4 and drew with Internacional 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 18D 17L from the last 53 games (34% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atletico Paranaense have won 7 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Chapecoense-sc 1-4 and drew with Coritiba 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 11D 13L from the last 43 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGremio
No reported absences
Atletico Paranaense
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Alex Gomes Stefano has averaged 8.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Gremio have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Atletico Paranaense 6.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Paranaense have generated 1.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 6.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Paranaense player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
